2018 Primary Predictions

I’m going to make some “gut” predictions in some key primary races across Illinois.  These are NOT my preferences in these races!!  These are just the outcomes I see (or feel) coming, and in each case I’ll try to explain why.  There are definitely places here where I wouldn't mind being wrong - at all.

Disagree with these predictions?  Let me know why!

Illinois Governor, Democratic:  JB Pritzker

He’s consistently led all polling.  By this point, for it really to be a toss-up there would need to be at least one or two polls showing a different leader besides Pritzker.  I think his tremendous wealth attracts most support to his candidacy, given that he’ll need it to defeat Bruce Rauner, which is the ultimate goal.  Combine that with the progressive lean of his platform, his ubiquity on the airwaves since the summer, and his demonstrably deep knowledge of the issues, and I don’t think Pritzker will lose this.  The late-breaking news about his offshore tax havens really will only make Pritzker detractors more certain that they won’t vote for him, as opposed to turning undecided voters away from him.

Illinois Governor, Republican:  Bruce Rauner

Despite his weak showing in the Tribune debate, and some close polling, Illinois Republicans won’t abandon Rauner in large enough numbers for him to lose his primary.  The thing about Illinois Republicans is that most of them, especially in the collar counties, are not dramatically right-wing on social issues.  Rauner’s challenger is running solely on right-wing social issue positions.  Rauner has stayed on-message about making Mike Madigan the enemy, which plays very well with Republicans (and a great deal of Democrats).

Illinois Attorney General, Democrat:  Pat Quinn

I think name recognition alone will win this for the former Governor.  It’s a nine-way race, and his opponents largely are vying for the Cook County vote.  With that split, Quinn’s numbers in the collars and downstate will carry the day for him.

Illinois Attorney General, Republican:  Erika Harold

Harold earned some national press due to Burt Minor’s dramatic ignorance about race and sexuality.  Her primary opponent is a former colleague of mine who, while I enjoyed working with him, probably can't make up for Harold’s name recognition.  She also has Rauner money behind her, which gives her a boost.

Congress, IL-03, Democrat:  Dan Lipinski

While the national party apparatus has abandoned him, labor and the local infrastructure have not.  I doubt enough of his voters will trade in his 7 terms of incumbency for a newcomer.  Though Bernie Sanders did win his district in 2016, Democratic turnout in midterm primaries is much lower, and Sanders isn’t campaigning for Marie Newman, to my knowledge.

Congress, IL-04, Democrat:  Chuy Garcia

You don’t force Rahm Emanuel into a runoff and then lose when you run to succeed Luis Gutiérrez.

Congress, IL-06, Democrat:  Kelly Mazeski

Her backing from EMILY’s list, slew of high-profile endorsements, fundraising edge, and a seven-way race will win this for her.  In such a broad field it’s possible to earn just under 15% of the vote and get the nomination.  It’ll be close.

Cook County Assessor, Democrat:  Joe Berrios

Unpopular politicians win when the opposition is divided.  While Fritz Kaegi has a strong campaign and numerous high-profile endorsements behind him, the fact that the other challenger, Andrea Raila, is back on the ballot will sap “anti-Berrios” votes from Kaegi.  Berrios still has the Cook County Machine at his command, too, and that’s nothing to sniff at.

State Rep, 42nd District, Republican:  Amy Grant

Amy’s signs are literally all over the district, in yard after yard.  Burt Minor imploded due to his own boorish ignorance and actually got un-endorsed by the Daily Herald over it.  Ryan Byrne is a newbie and will hardly make a dent in the numbers.

State Rep, 49th District, Republican:  Tonia Khouri

Has anyone noticed just how nasty this race has gotten?  Nic Zito and Tonia Khouri are at each other’s throats with attack pieces.  If you believe them both, he lives in his Democratic dad’s basement, fed on a steady diet of Ed Burke money, while she never shows up for work and cheats on her property taxes.  Khouri’s pockets are deeper than Zito’s, and ultimately that tends to win you the day.

State Rep, 82nd District, Republican:  Jim Durkin

Durkin is a caucus leader.  Caucus leaders do not lose their primaries.  Just ask Mike Madigan.

DuPage County Sheriff, Republican:  James Mendrick

Mendrick has the backing of so many in the Republican establishment and has run one of the most high-profile local races in this primary season.  His opponent is backed only by the former Sheriff and one County Board Member.  It’s clear to see who is on the outside of the GOP establishment here, and you don’t win from outside the establishment in the DuPage GOP.