The Orange Wig Party
Donald Trump has been dealt nothing but setback after setback. After scoring an early victory with his undeserved Supreme Court nomination, the healthcare repeal failed, the border wall isn’t going up, courts held up his travel ban, and even though it passed a major hurdle in the Senate, his tax bill is on shaky ground. Add to that a series of GOP losses in special elections for a handful of governorships and the Alabama Senate seat, and Trump’s abysmal approval ratings, and Trump seems to have very few friends or chances for success left.
The race in Alabama, though, opens a new possibility. Trump backed the establishment GOP candidate in the primary, Luther Strange, in a bid to placate his own party’s leaders in Congress. Strange lost, however, and when Trump backed the winner, Roy Moore, it was against the advice of his party leadership. Only Trump could pull the RNC in to prop up Moore’s bid at the eleventh hour, and the RNC fell right in line, but it wasn’t enough in the end. Now he’s already saying he “knew all along” that Moore could not win.
Trump’s relationship with his own party has never been sanguine. It wasn’t long ago that he tweeted about the shackles coming off. He famously has battled with Mitch McConnell, and a number of GOP senators have not only questioned the President’s policies, but his very sanity. Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, and Dean Heller are either retiring or threatened with primaries because of their opposition to the President. The House is different. Many Republican House members are more solidly in Trump’s corner. It is the Senate where he has lost his legislative battles, for the most part. But some former enemies there are now allies, like Lindsey Graham.
So what does Trump have to his credit? He has a significant but not unanimous following in his party’s elected leadership. He has a media machine churning out bias and spin in his favor 24/7 at Fox and Breitbart. He has a solid third of the American public behind him no matter what he does. He has lots of money. And he has an incalculable ego and drive for self-preservation.
As the Russia investigation proceeds, Trump is going to need ground to stand on, and if he stays with the GOP they could very well ditch him to save themselves. Alabama showed that Trump’s magic touch is wearing off. One way or the other, his sexual misconduct ought to catch up with him much sooner now. The Democrats have thrown their offenders to the wolves, and Moore couldn’t limp across the finish line in a deep-red State with the President’s backing. The establishment GOP may want to remove the President from their ranks if they want to have success in the midterms now. Otherwise, he will be their albatross.
And perversely, Trump may want to rid himself of the GOP. Even though he used them to get to the White House, he was never their friend. His supporters crashed the Grand Old Party and nominated him instead of any of the others in their baker’s dozen of candidates. The “movement” behind him has always been about him personally, not any policy of substance. His number one ally, Steve Bannon, wants to remake the Republican Party in Trump’s image, but that’s becoming less and less possible the more the President fails. Trump could very well gamble that if he left the Republican Party and founded the Trump Party, he’d take a good portion of the Congress, some governorships, a good amount of state legislative seats, and the 33% of Americans who approve of his presidency with him. To Trump, he’d be pulling the rug out from under the troublesome GOP once and for all. He wouldn’t need to listen to Party insiders and stalwarts anymore - the loss in Alabama could be blamed on their reluctance to support Moore until Trump forced them. All the establishment would have left would be its big donors, and that plays exactly into Trump’s “drain the swamp” image. He could very, very easily spin it as a win, and a decision that is good for the country. And he will need the pro-Trump press to decry the Mueller investigation’s findings as “fake news” every step of the way. Unshackled (for real this time) from the decadent and out-of-touch Republican elite, Trump would be freed to cut his famous deals with either the Democrats or the Republicans, whoever he could get the votes from to Make America Great Again. And as a sitting President he’d have the financial and political clout to make his third party last. It would throw the 2018 midterms into total disarray. Now safe GOP seats would be vulnerable to Trump Party candidates, and swing districts in the Rust Belt might no longer be seen as potential Democratic pickups. Trump could field his own candidates with his own branding to win back the disaffected white voters who won him the Presidency. Instead of the binary choice between Dem or Rep, Trump voters could send true voices that support the President to Congress, not someone who would have to kowtow to the likes of McConnell or Ryan - both of whom are exceptionally unpopular. It would be throwing the bums out, and helping their beloved President finally get his plans going. And if there’s anything Trump loves, it’s his own brand. His own political party would be the best chance to promote that brand, totally independent of anyone else’s baggage or messaging. He couldn’t run viably as a third-party candidate in 2016, but now, as the elected President, things are different. His own party under his control would guarantee him a re-nomination for the Presidency in 2020, and no need to worry about an establishment GOP challenge. And if he loses in the general election, he can walk that off as a win. “I tried, America, thanks for four great years!”
To the establishment GOP, they could gamble that when it really does become a choice between Trump or them, most traditionally Republican voters would choose them. After all, they’re not sex offenders and Russian colluders who lose easy Senate races. They have a proud history of Reaganomics, family and faith-based values, and feeding the military-industrial complex that has made them powerful for 30 years. The true Republicans would stay with the party while the Trumpist interlopers would be purged - just in time for 2018. And with their big donors securely in their pocket, they wouldn’t have to fear for resources. The moderate GOP press and the Breitbart crowd could finally have the war they want.
A President leaving his own party is not unprecedented. President John Tyler was forced out of his own Whig Party in 1841 because of a power struggle between him and Henry Clay. Tyler finished his tenure with no party affiliation. And as I mentioned in an earlier post, Teddy Roosevelt broke with the Republican Party after a disagreement with William Taft, and formed the Bull Moose Party to contest the 1912 election. Whether it is Trump or the GOP establishment that pulls the trigger, this may be the first shot at a truly viable third party in American politics, and could spell the beginning of a new party system altogether. But it would only last as long as Trump remains a prominent political figure... and out of jail.
Comments
Post a Comment